Monday, April 14, 2008

Polls, polls, and more polls! Clinton up by 20 points

The Pennsylvania primary is a week from tomorrow, and there will be many more polls popping up in the coming the hours, I suspect. The candidates have had a very busy weekend, and it will be interesting to see how the Pa. voters react. But first out of the gate is the poll from American Research Group, which has Clinton up by 20 percentage points (click image to enlarge it):

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%.

Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Clinton leads 52% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (50% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 62% to 31% among voters age 50 and older.

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

23% of likely Democratic primary voters say that excessive exposure to Obama's advertising is causing them to support Clinton.

What's going on with that last item? People have complained about Clinton "attacking" and running a "negative campaign" in the past, but it looks like Obama's campaign is it's own worst enemy in Pennsylvania.


Cootamundra W said...

We don't watch much TV at our house so our ad sampling may be misleading... From what we see, in our portion of PA, there are many more Obama-machine ads than Clinton ads.. As in, I cannot really recall any Clinton ads, but we've seen at least 12 Obama-machine ads.
Keep reminding those of us in PA about the primary next Tuesday.

Sue J said...

That sounds like it was here in Maryland, but here she was so far behind in all the polls that I'm sure they were trying to save $$. Interesting that with Obama so far behind he's spending so much on tv ads.

Keep reminding those of us in PA about the primary next Tuesday.

Um, are you actually saying voters there might forget? How can anyone possibly avoid knowing about the primary?

*secretly envious that someone might not have heard all of this news lately *

phil_in_ny said...

Good news Sue. Lets hope she stays there.

Sue J said...

My fingers are crossed, Phil!

Mary Ellen said...

I've seen so many different polls I don't know what to believe. I pray that Hillary does beat Obama by a large margain...double digits...20 points would be a dream come true!

Barack's explanation about the "bitter" remark was ridiculous and the Annie Oakley remark was even worse because it was not only sexist, but stupid. Did you see NO Quarter today? They showed polls in Florida that every time Obama stopped them from getting a re-vote, McCain polls show MCain beating him by double digits in FL. Yet, Hillary beats McCain by at least one point or more, depending on the polls. If the Super Delegates don't take that into consideration, especially if Clinton does very well in PA...they are going to lose this general election for us.

Mauigirl said...

Wow, looks like his comments have hurt him - look at the difference vs. April 5-6.

Will "take no prisoners" Hart said...

These politicians have to realize that this is the digital age and that every time they speak, it just might be recorded. Off the record comments? Not so much anymore.

Mauigirl said...

Very true, Will.

I've seen some other polls that don't show this big difference though. I think what happens next Tuesday is anybody's guess!