Friday, January 4, 2008

Fuzzy Math Alert

As the pundits proclaim the various "landslides" and "sweeps" in the Iowa race, here's how the numbers really break down:

Total Voter Turnout (approximate)


Percentage of total vote

24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)

So the "landslide," if there was one, was for the Democrats. (H/T to Hubris Sonic at Group News Blog)

And my favorite headline of the day (so far):
Hillary came in 3rd, but she still got almost twice as many votes as Huckabee


scepter66 said...

dear sue,
i respect your opinion and i have a question.
why is it , do you think, that clinton is not doing better than she is?
as you know from our brief holiday conversation, there were some things about huckabee that i liked, but since then you have managed to deliver some good points to the contrary, and now for me his bad points far outweigh what little i liked about him.
as far as clinton goes, i don't think that she would make a bad president, and that means alot coming from a blue collar guy such as myself.
so why do you think she is not doing better than obama. she is certainly my favorite of the dems.

Mauigirl said...

Sue, thanks for posting that bit of perspective there - good news for the Democrats all the way around.

Scepter, I know you didn't ask me your question, but my theory is this: Hillary has a lot of baggage, even among Democrats. And many people just don't trust her or feel warmly about her. I am one of them. I WANT to want her; I believe it's time for a woman for President; I generally agree with most of her policies except her vote for the Iraq war (and refusal to recant it once it became clear Congress had been duped and there were no WMDs). I would vote for her if she becomes the nominee. But I don't like the idea. Obama represents more real change and I think a less divisive outlook. Just my two cents.

scepter66 said...

hey, wow. i wasn't expecting extra input on that , so thanks. the more opinions i hear the better view of the big picture i think i will have.
so far, what you said, is kinda what i was figuring.
i also wonder if people are afraid that absolutely nothing will get done because all the time will be spent trying to impeach hilary.

Sue J said...

Yay! No more Huckabee for you, Scepter66!

Now, as to Clinton, not to sound too conspiratorial, but I think the media is trying to make a story out of Hillary Clinton, any way it can. I keep reading that she is "divisive," but when I speak with individuals, what I hear is exactly what you're saying, Mauigirl: You agree with her policies and you'd like a woman to be president, but you just don't trust her or feel warmly about her. And I don't understand that. Not a criticism, I just don't understand it. Can you tell me what Hillary Clinton has actually said or done that is divisive?

Personally I think the press took hold of that "divisive" mantra from the right-wingers who truly don't like her because of her policies. Unfortunately it has two effects: first, it validates the right-wingers who hate her when they see it in the press, and secondly, it makes the Democrats worry that she might not be "electable."

But the other thing to keep in mind is that we really do have 3 incredibly strong candidates in the Democratic party, so I'm not surprised that no one ran away with the Iowa caucus. Remember, the actual numbers for the top three were:

Obama: 38%
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 29%

That's actually a pretty close race. The next few primaries are Hew Hampshire, New Jersey, and California, and Hillary Clinton has a strong following in those states.

I wouldn't count anyone out at this point.

My 2 cents.

scepter66 said...

cha-ching !!
now i have four cents, thank you

Sue J said...

cha-ching !!

"Listen Daddy! Another angel just got its wings!"

--Oh sorry! That's another story!